Despite growing optimism that Bitcoin has bottomed out, historical cycles suggest so We might have another leg down. While increased institutional involvement may reduce the severity of the downturn, Chart subscriber By a senior cryptocurrency analyst suggests that the cryptocurrency may still be I headed to the bottom Less than $30,000 before a sustainable recovery begins.
Bitcoin cycle pattern indicates a possible deeper decline
The analyst explains this Bitcoin has followed a recurring pattern Across major market cycles, strong rallies are followed by very deep price declines. In previous cycles, Bitcoin fell about 83.90% after the 2017 peak and about 77.91% after the 2021 peak. These past movements are used as a guide to understanding the current market structure.
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In the current session, Bitcoin has risen Over $120,000 during the 2025 uptrend Before entering the decline. At the time of analysis, the price was in the low $60,000 range. The main point being made is that if Bitcoin declines by a similar percentage as it has in previous cycles, the eventual bottom could be much lower than current levels.
A similar type of decline, around 78.92%, would put a potential low below $30,000. This is not presented as a prediction, but as a possible outcome if the market… It follows its historical pattern.
The analyst also highlights that Bitcoin tends to move within a long-term upward channel Past bear market lows They are formed near the lower edge of this range. Based on this structure, the argument suggests that the market is probably still in the middle of a correction phase, and… A deeper decline is still possible before reaching the final bottom.
Institutions change the equation
However, the analyst does not believe that history will be repeated perfectly. While the chart shows that past sessions have often erased nearly 80% of value from highs, it sees that the market structure has evolved.
Unlike previous courses, it includes the current environment Significant institutional participation. Large investment firms, exchange-traded funds, and corporate treasury allocations have provided new sources of demand that were largely absent during the bear markets of 2018 and 2022. From the analysts’ point of view, this growing institutional presence should gradually reduce volatility.
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For this reason, the analyst expects the final drawdown to be closer to 50%-60% instead of the historical average near 80%. Based on this framework, a lower bound of around $52,000 becomes the preferred but not the preferred target Collapse below $30,000. The forecast also includes a bold prediction that October could mark the beginning of a new bull market.
Currently, the chart displays two competing possibilities. It suggests the behavior of the historical cycle Destination below $30K, while the analyst’s revised model suggests a shallower decline near $52K. The gap between those results highlights the question dominating the Bitcoin market today: Will institutional capital rewrite the rules, or will history have the final say?
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
