Bitcoin price looks bad, but I’ll buy it. The price may go down, that’s always possible, but there is value at these levels, and I’m accumulating. I think it’s important to be honest about how I actually act based on the analysis I publish, rather than just presenting data from a distance. Right now, the data says something that has only been said a handful of times in Bitcoin’s entire history.
Let’s cut to the chase:
- The Crosby Ratio Z-score has one of the lowest readings in history.
- The RSI is at a level we have only encountered a handful of times at extreme market lows.
- Bitcoin rebounded from the 200-week moving average.
- SOPR is in the bottom fifth percentile of all historical readings.
- The Mayer multiplier is also in the lower 5th percentile.
Crosby ratio
the Crosby ratio The Z-score measures Bitcoin price momentum and standardizes it according to evolving Bitcoin volatility. It is not a fixed threshold as it is adjusted as the market matures and pressures volatility, making it applicable at every stage of Bitcoin’s history. The current reading is around -1.7. This means that 99.8% of all days in Bitcoin history have recorded a less extreme reading on this indicator.
Figure 1: The Crosby Ratio Z-Score just dropped to one of its lowest values ever.
List of instances where this reading was low: the last drop to $60,000, the first break below $20,000 in 2022, the coronavirus crash in March 2020, and the bear market low in 2018. That’s it. Four occasions in over a decade of price history. Each of them turns out to be a significant accretive opportunity.
RSI
The RSI is one of the most widely used momentum indicators across all markets. Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is currently at one of the lowest levels ever. Previous instances of such low readings were the 2015 bear market low, the 2018 bear market low, the coronavirus crash, and the recent drop to $60,000.
Figure 2: RSI comparable to historical lows.
There are two independent momentum indicators, measured very differently, but they produce the same short list of historical comparisons. This kind of coming together across methodologies is not something that can be dismissed.
200 week moving average
the 200 week moving average It has served as bear market support throughout Bitcoin’s history. The only significant exception was the FTX collapse in late 2022, which caused a short but sharp decline before a quick recovery. Outside of this event, this level has remained a floor at every tournament.
Figure 3: Bitcoin is currently sitting just above the 200WMA.
Bitcoin has just bounced off this level again. Directly below current prices lies the low of the last session, creating the structure for a potential double bottom, one of the most reliable technical formations in any market. The 200 week moving average and… Verified Bitcoin price They converge in roughly the same area, adding additional weight to this level as meaningful structural support.
SOPR and multiple Meyer
the Percentage of profit from consumed output It currently sits in the bottom fifth percentile of all historical readings. This means that the rate of losses realized across the Bitcoin network, and the pace at which Bitcoin holders are selling at a loss, is in the deepest 5% of anything we have ever recorded. The sell-off that led to the move was mostly short-term in nature. Value Days’ devastating data confirms that long-term shareholders were largely uninvolved in this liquidation. These are the short-term traders and leveraged positions that get eliminated, not the conviction holders who give up.
Figure 4: Output profits consumed ratio shows the severity of recent losses.
The Mayer Multiple, which measures Bitcoin’s price compared to its 200-day moving average, is simultaneously at its 5th percentile. When these two indicators have historically been at their minimum at the same time, the resulting accumulation opportunities have been exceptional. This has only happened a few times, and each instance was followed by a significant price hike.
Figure 5: The Mayer multiplier has reached levels consistent with the lows of the previous down cycle.
To sum it up
I’ll be honest, I was surprised by the power of the pullback. I expected a pullback from the $80,000 resistance area, but the move through the $70,000 area was sharper than expected. What did not surprise me was the data that emerged as a result, because this type of confluence across technical, chain and momentum indicators has been shown before, and the market has rewarded continued accumulation at these readings.
Can we go lower? Yes. The achieved price is not far from the current levels and represents the next important support area if the bottom is revisited. I am prepared for this scenario. But setting aside all the sentiment and just looking at what the data is saying, five independent signals at once in generational territory, this is not the moment to wait on the sidelines for a slightly better price.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
