According to a group of international scientists, the risks of climate change mitigation are “undermined by the misuse of new approaches to methane.”
A letter signed by more than 40 scientists from 10 countries, including Ireland, warned against using the “global warming potential (GWP*) star” as a measure.
GWP100 is a more widely used scale nowadays.
Last year, an international group of farming groups (including Irish representatives) He advocated a gas-splitting approach When reporting greenhouse gas emissions.
“The use of GWP100 is particularly concerning in the New Zealand environment where methane emissions are already falling,” group chair Kate Acland said at the time.
“GWP100, which works well for long-lived gases like carbon dioxide, is inaccurate when measuring the warming impact of short-lived gases like methane, especially when those emissions are trending downward.”
The group of scientists’ statement this week expressed “deep concern that this crucial methane mitigation is being undermined globally by efforts to redefine greenhouse gas measurement methods and climate targets.”
The report added: “In many high-emitting countries – particularly the US, EU, New Zealand, Ireland, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina, policymakers and industry groups are promoting new approaches, such as Global Warming Potential Star (GWP*).”
“Although these approaches are rooted in legitimate scientific methodologies, they are increasingly being used to justify revised climate targets that aim for ‘temperature neutrality’ or ‘no warming.’”
“In practice, these targets make it easier to dilute ambition below what can easily be achieved by high-emitting countries. This entrenches historical privilege and distorts the core temperature and fairness principles of the Paris Agreement.”
Methane emissions
The scientists’ letter also refers to “ancestral methane emissions.”
This was denounced last year by Irish scientist Dr Colm Duffy, Honorary Lecturer in Agricultural Sustainability, School of Biological and Chemical Sciences and the Ryan Institute, University of Galway.
at that time, Dr. Duffy and his colleagues criticized the new principle of “thermal neutrality.”also known as “No More Global Warming”, which allows Ireland to maintain a high share of global agricultural methane emissions while claiming to meet its climate targets.
“The science shows that the new policy works fundamentally to reduce methane emissions – meaning that a country’s future share of global warming depends not on equity or ambition, but on its historical share of emissions,” Dr Duffy said.
“Advances in these new methods would allow major methane emitters to continue producing significant amounts of greenhouse gases while claiming climate neutrality,” this week’s letter said.
According to the statement, this is done “by focusing only on changes in warming over time, rather than overall warming and inappropriate applications of global warming* and ‘no more warming’ of existing methane emissions, rewarding countries and companies with high historical methane emissions and penalizing low-emitting countries that need space for development.”
The letter warned that these approaches, if widely adopted, would “reduce significant climate impacts of methane-intensive sectors, such as ruminant livestock and fossil fuel extraction; allow countries and companies to meet nominal ‘neutrality’ targets while still contributing to global warming; legitimize minimal methane reductions and undermine progress toward the global methane pledge (-30% by 2030).”
The scientists’ letter urged governments to “reject inappropriate application of global warming potential*, including the use of ‘temperature neutrality’ as the basis for national targets or reporting.”
Legislative framework
This was stated by a spokesperson for the Department of Climate, Energy and Environment (DECC). Agriland:
“As a member of the EU, it is worth noting that Ireland operates within a very different legislative framework to countries outside the EU, such as New Zealand, which governs how emissions are measured and acted upon to achieve our climate targets.”
European climate law commits the EU to achieving climate neutrality (or net-zero greenhouse gas emissions) by 2050.
The spokesman said any decisions on Ireland’s carbon budgets must be aligned with this comprehensive framework.
“At a domestic level, the methodology for calculating greenhouse gases in Ireland is set out in Regulation SI No. 531/2021, and this requires that all greenhouse gases, including methane, be accounted for in a manner consistent with agreed EU and international standards.
The spokesman added: “This government is committed to fulfilling Ireland’s responsibility to address the climate crisis, and the government’s 2025 program recognizes the scale of the challenge facing Ireland and sets a comprehensive agenda to respond to the climate crisis.”
Carbon budgets
The Parliamentary Joint Committee on Climate, Environment and Energy has undertaken a detailed examination of the second carbon budget programme, as proposed by the Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC).
In its expanded report, the committee made 38 recommendations covering multiple sectors, including agriculture, electricity, transportation, just transition, and buildings.
The ministry said the recommendations, and the proposal made by the council itself, would need to be carefully assessed before Transport Minister and Minister for Climate, Energy and Environment Darragh O’Brien made any further proposals to the government.
“This is what we are focusing on now, in addition to the work that has already been done over the past few months.
“Minister O’Brien notes the extensive feedback received to date from a wide range of experts and stakeholders on the carbon budget proposals, including the issue of temperature neutrality.
The ministry spokesman said: “These are important factors that are being given due consideration in the context of the process of developing the minister’s final recommendations to the government on the next budget programme.”
