Bloomberg Intelligence poll (Portals(Among 126 energy market participants, most expect Brent crude to average between $81 and $100 over the next year, with demand destruction seen as the main offset for supply losses from the war with Iran.)
summary:
Source: Bloomberg Intelligence survey of 126 respondents, energy market participants and asset managers
- The majority expect the Brent price to average $81 to $100 per barrel over the next 12 months.
- Nearly two-thirds see a permanent geopolitical risk premium of $5 to $15 per barrel lasting for years.
- Demand destruction has been identified as the most likely mechanism for offsetting supply deficits, ahead of redirection of trade flows, OPEC+ adjustments, and strategic reserve releases.
- Most participants expect global supply disruptions of between 3 and 7 million barrels per day; Few expect outages exceeding 10 million
- Nearly half expect Hormuz flows to average 51 to 75 percent of the normal 20 million barrels per day over the next 12 months.
- The demand bias for WTI and Brent has narrowed to its lowest level since before the conflict began; Hedge funds reduced their bullish positions to similar levels
- The Energy Information Administration expects US crude oil production to reach a record 14.1 million barrels per day in 2027.
Oil traders are increasingly treating the price of $100 per barrel as a ceiling rather than a floor, considering the supply disruptions due to the Iran war to be a chronic, manageable condition rather than a catastrophic collapse in the global energy system.
That’s the central finding of a Bloomberg Intelligence survey of 126 asset managers and energy market professionals conducted this month. Most participants expect Brent to average between $81 and $100 over the next year, with demand destruction the primary mechanism that will curb prices by gradually eroding consumption enough to replace the millions of barrels of daily supplies lost to the conflict. Nearly two-thirds expect the geopolitical risk premium of $5 to $15 per barrel to persist for years, but few expect it to exceed $20.
Now in its 12th week, the war has severely restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the transit point for about 20 million barrels of daily flows. Nearly half of survey respondents expect cross-Strait trading volumes to range between 51 and 75 percent of normal over the next 12 months, and to be limited but not collapsed. The survey suggests that the market is adjusting to prolonged disruption within limits, not an open-ended shock.
Positioning data supports this reading. Demand skew for WTI and Brent has narrowed to its lowest level since before the conflict began, and hedge funds have reduced their net bullish positions to similarly low levels. It seems that traders are more focused on managing volatility rather than seeking more gains.
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The survey conclusions reinforce a market structure where the upside is being restricted by demand destruction rather than supply resolution, limiting the possibility of a sustained breakout above $100. The narrowing of demand bias in WTI and Brent to pre-conflict lows, coupled with hedge funds cutting net long positions, suggests that speculative appetite for further upside is fading even as physical tightness continues. The expected moderate gains in shale oil production offer limited relief, as most participants are not convinced that US production growth will be enough to rebalance the market in any meaningful time frame.
