Bitcoin (BTC) price is near $76,875 as selling pressure cools and a breakout setup forms, but the largest whale wallets and smart money index are both leaning in the other direction.
The setup follows a 27% rally between March 29 and May 6 that paused inside a downward sloping channel. Whether the bulls reclaim the breakout zone now depends on whether the retail calm can outlast flat distribution from larger participants.
Selling pressure cools as breakout setup continues
Bitcoin was formed Bull flag pattern after rising over 27% between March 29 and May 6. This pattern is a short, downward-sloping channel that follows a sharp move higher and often indicates a continuation of the trend towards a breakout.
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The flag’s lower trend line is under immediate pressure as BTC tests the edge of support. However, selling volume has slowed significantly since May 15, suggesting that bears may be running out of steam and that a breakout setup remains intact.
To support this technical reading, on-chain data from Binance Research shows supply tightening across four metrics. Nearly 60% of Bitcoin supply has not moved in over a year, while Bitcoin exchange balances have fallen to 15.0% from a Covid-era peak of 17.6%.
The short-term holder’s MVRV, a measure that compares the current value of new buyers’ coins versus what they paid, is back above 1.0. The reading suggests that new entrants may be sitting on small unrealized gains for the first time since November 2024.
The lower edge of the flag thus appears to have a structural cushion of tightening width, keeping the breakout condition alive. Whether larger groups agree to this is a separate story.
Whales shrink supply as smart money index declines
Low volume only tells half the story. Two of Largest Bitcoin collection The signals have moved in the opposite direction since February.
Wallets holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 BTC have steadily reduced their supply share from 3.46% on February 20 to 3.31% as of May 18. The decline was almost linear with no meaningful rebuilds, suggesting that the largest Bitcoin whales may be distributing bounces over a period of about three months.
Notably, no meaningful recoveries occurred while Bitcoin itself rose to its peak in early May, suggesting that its largest holders still view this phase as a weak one. This pattern undermines the breakout narrative that the cold sell pressure has been building.
The Smart Money Index, a measure that compares trading activity near the open versus the close to track investors’ informed intentions, has fueled caution. The index broke below the signal line on May 15, the first decisive breakout since March 26.
The previous low in late April was quickly recovered. The latest move appears to be much sharper and has not been recovered, with Bitcoin down approximately 5% since this collapse began.
Even as retail selling pressure cools, the largest portfolios and the smart money gauge are both leaning toward caution. This sets up the price chart as the deciding factor as to whether the breakout still has a chance.
Bitcoin price levels that determine breakouts
the Bitcoin price now It is located between two main technical levels. The zones are drawn from the swing low of $64,884 to the swing high of $82,830.
The 0.236 retracement at $78,595 caps any immediate upside. The 0.382 level at $75,975 is the first line of defense.
A daily close below $75,975 will push BTC into the 0.5 zone at $73,857. This level would erode the breakout situation. A drop below the 0.618 mark at $71,739 would completely invalidate this pattern.
On the upside, the flag’s upper trend line support is located near $81,665. Reclaiming this and breaking above the swing high at $82,830 would confirm the breakout, re-extend the 27% rally, and likely attract fresh attention from the now spread groups.
The nuances of the pattern worth noting are that bullish flags only emphasize a clean breakout above the upper boundary with higher volume. Even then, every test of the lower edge increases the odds of a clean breakout rather than a continuation. The $75,975 lower bound separates the flag’s continuation toward a breakout at $82,830 from a measured slide toward $73,857 or lower.
this post Bitcoin selling pressure is calming with a 27% breakout on the horizon, but whales have other plans appeared first on BeInCrypto.
