Key takeaways
- Sui’s stock fell 10% on Friday, extending its decline for the fifth straight day.
- The technical outlook for SUI is bearish, with the risk of a sharp decline towards $1.00.
Sui (SUI) fell nearly 10% on Friday, extending a five-day decline this week as retail interest in the token waned.
The broader market is shifting focus away from underperforming Tier 1 assets, and technical indicators point to a potential double-digit decline towards $1.00.
Weakness in derivatives indicates sell-side dominance
SUI is also losing momentum in the derivatives market. according to Queen GlassSUI futures open interest (OI) fell 10.5% over the past 24 hours to $727.97 million, reflecting a lower notional value of outstanding contracts.
In the same period, $7.2 million of positions were liquidated, of which $7.2 million came from long positions, indicating strong selling pressure.
Technical Forecast: Will SUI fall below $1?
The 4-hour SUI/USD chart is bearish and active, with Sui down 10% in the past 24 hours. At press time, SUI is trading below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.1558 and the lower Bollinger band at $1.1442, showing a short-term bearish bias.
The token remains above its 200-period moving average at $1.0270, suggesting that the broader recovery structure remains intact despite waning momentum.
Momentum indicators indicate that the bears are still in the game. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell to 46, below the midline, while the MACD histogram remained in negative territory, implying that rallies may face continued selling pressure.
If the downtrend continues, the bulls will face the first support at the 200-day moving average at $1.0270 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.9972.
A daily close below this level could take SUI closer to the previous session low near $0.8815.
However, if the bulls regain control, SUI could rise towards the first resistance level at $1.2171. An extended rally could take SUI to the upper border of the Bollinger Band near $1.2900, and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $1.2947.
The technical structure of SUI is showing deteriorating momentum, and traders should monitor both the spot and derivatives markets for signs of further declines or potential relief rallies.
