author
Ahmed Barakat
author
Share
Fact verified by
CryptoNews editorial team
author
Bitcoin is trading below $80,000, as US non-farm payrolls news fell on Friday with a sharp loss. Job growth in April recorded only 62 thousand jobs, compared to 172 thousand jobs in March. It’s a deteriorating labor market that had previously spurred the Fed’s pivotal outlook and sent risks into overdrive Origins higher.
However, the complexity comes right away. Average hourly wages are at 3.8% year over year, up from 3.5% previously, wage growth that keeps inflation alive and partially ties the Fed’s hands.
The $120,000 Bitcoin Thesis requires cooperation from both sides of this equation. An accessible labor market paves one path. It indicates that the Fed can hold or lower interest rates, raising risky assets and reducing the opportunity cost of holding BTC. But fixed wages hinder this path.
Discover: The best pre-launch token sales
Jobs miss the news for $120,000 Bitcoin
The overall logic is clear and straightforward. A hiring slowdown of this magnitude strengthens the argument that the US labor market is cooling fast enough to prevent the Fed from further tightening its policies. Markets are currently pricing in fixed interest rates through 2026. A print at this speed could push these bullish expectations even further, which is the definition of pessimistic repricing.
For Bitcoin, this transfer mechanism is straightforward. Low interest rate expectations pressure the dollar, reduce returns on competing assets, and are historically associated with Bitcoin accumulation by institutional players. The August 2025 playbook is instructive: News of 22,000 payrolls pushed Bitcoin past $113,000 as the odds of an interest rate cut rose to near certainty.
However, the technical picture requires respecting the physical location of Bitcoin at the moment. Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Market Analyst at FxPro, explains the structure clearly:
Bitcoin retreated below its 200-day moving average after briefly entering overbought territory near the upper border of its uptrend channel, with the lower limit of the channel located near $77,500 and a break of the broader trend requiring a drop below $75,000.
Find out: How Bitcoin’s daily cycles are shaping its path back above $82,000
Wage growth is a variable that the market cannot ignore
The 3.8% year-over-year wage growth figure is a speed bump embedded in today’s Bitcoin-friendly data. Wages at this level support services inflation, the most stable item in the CPI basket, and give the Fed legitimate cover to keep interest rates higher for longer no matter how weak headline payroll results are.
The transfer mechanism works in the wrong direction for BTC. Continued wage growth fuels service prices, which fuels core inflation, which fuels a Fed that can’t spin cleanly. The Fed’s inability to pivot means interest rates remain high, the dollar remains supported, and the risk premiums associated with non-yielding assets like Bitcoin remain compressed.
As long as wage growth remains above 3.5%, the Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability remains in active tension, and this tension limits how aggressively markets price in easing.
the Coinbase The Bitcoin Premium Index turning discount this week adds another layer of caution. This indicator measures the price gap between Bitcoin on Coinbase versus third-party exchanges like Binance. Green readings indicate US institutional demand; The opponent suggests the opposite. The rise above $80,000 stopped precisely when this premium disappeared.
QCP Capital, a Singapore-based trading firm, defines broader macro risks sharply:
If crude oil fails to decline before the FOMC minutes on May 20, Brent is just above $100 per barrel and markets assign a 97% probability of Hormuz not normalizing by May 15, it will become very difficult to reject the stagflation narrative.
Stagflation is the worst macro environment for positioning risk assets in Bitcoin.
Discover: The best cryptocurrencies to diversify your investment portfolio
