Bitcoin briefly topped $81,000 today, with net realized gains reaching $207.56 million, the highest reading in a single month this cycle.
Who is selling? ETF flows and spot demand absorbed the early pressure, but if long holders above the 155-day range are the ones to gain at $80K, the market signal is changing.
Realized profit measures the total gains made when coins move on-chain above their original acquisition price. According to Santiment, Sunday’s reading of $207.56 million represents the highest amount for any single month in the current cycle. This was not an all-time high by any means, but it was the highest reading of the session at a psychologically loaded price level.
Coins purchased near $70,000 crossed into the profit zone once Bitcoin crossed $80,000, and a portion of their holders sold off. “High profit taking in a bull market may indicate that buyers have taken advantage of the supply,” Santiment noted, while also noting that Bitcoin “showed active demand on the move as it topped $80,000 while holders made gains.”
The SOPR is trending toward levels historically associated with local peaks in previous cycles. When the SOPR rises at a large round number after a multi-month recovery rally, the historical pattern splits: in 2021, similar readings at resistance were preceded by a 20-30% bounce before continuing; In late 2023, it was absorbed, and the market soared within weeks.
Discover: The best cryptocurrencies you can buy right now
Can Bitcoin hold $80,000 and turn it into support?
Analyst Michael van de Poppe noted that Bitcoin’s lower time frame structure remains intact as long as the price remains above the $73,000-$75,000 range, but rejection near $80,000 is not a clean technical signal. The $81,000 level is where cycle-based models indicate higher risks.
Alphractal CEO Joao Widson has publicly warned that a loss for Bitcoin could open the door to $65,500.
A weekly close above $81,000 held as support on the first retest would change the setup materially. The upside target in this scenario is the liquidity range of $86,000-$89,000, where short-term holder supply becomes the next point of friction.
A failure below $80,700 flips the bearish structure and brings the $75,000 and $73,000 demand areas back into play. This is a functional setup, but the confirmation comes from holding over $81k, not just breaking it.
The BTC ETF flows to accommodate long-term holders’ distribution
MicroStrategy’s ongoing accumulation position The net positive flows of the BlackRock Fund and Fidelity ETF provide a structural exposure that was not present in previous cycles. The price of CVD contracts rose 199.1% in the week before touching $81,000, indicating a high-conviction spot buy.
But inflows from Bitcoin ETFs have shown signs of stalling at net zero inflows since the peak in October, and the crypto market’s distribution dynamics become dangerous if this trend is not reversed. If the $207 million realized profit represents the beginning of a long-term sustained sell-off in ETF demand, inflows need to accelerate materially to prevent price pressure.
Watch the 30-day average flow of Bitcoin ETF over the next two weeks. A return to positive weekly net flows in excess of $500 million would confirm that institutional absorption is outpacing distribution to long-term bondholders.
Discover: The best cryptocurrencies to diversify your investment portfolio
this post Bitcoin hits $81K as profits peak: Is sell-off news imminent? appeared first on Encrypted news.
