- March US Factory Orders +1.5% vs. +0.5% expected (previously unchanged, revised to +0.3%)
- Factory Orders Excluding Transportation +1.6% vs. +1.6% previously (revised from +1.2%)
- Factory Orders Excluding Defense +0.9% vs. +0.3% previously
- Durable goods orders unrevised at +0.8%
- Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft were revised to +3.4% from +3.3%; March shipments unrevised at +1.2%
- Orders for computers/electronic products increased by 3.6% vs. +1.4% previously
- Non-durable goods orders +2.1% vs. previous +1.9%
- Total manufacturing inventories +0.6% vs. +0.1% previously
- Inventories/shipments ratio was 1.51 months versus 1.52 months previously
This is a clear win across the board and a meaningful upward revision for February. The title has tripled its consensus estimate and the review history continues to flatter the underlying trend. Outstanding orders remain for core capital goods excluding aircraft, rising to +3.4% – a strong print and reinforcing what last week’s durable goods report suggested about AI infrastructure and energy-related capex.
The Computers & Electronics Products, +3.6% line tells the same story, and the breadth here is notable with the former Transportation, Defense and Non-Durables companies. The decline in the ratio of inventories to shipments to 1.51 months indicates that demand is keeping pace with the increase, so this is not a story of storage masquerading as strength.
Shipments at +1.2% is the clearest reading of activity already hitting the economy, and the number is strong. It will be worth watching whether the April data will start to show a recovery, but right now the manufacturing complex is running hot and I don’t think there will be any decline in AI capital spending over the next couple of years.
Few people understand how huge the AI capex boom is. I tried to offer Some perspective As per last week’s post I don’t even think the numbers are hitting the economy yet.
