The Hormuz proposal presented by Tehran indicates de-escalation amid low prospects for a meeting between the United States and Iran

Tehran’s “Hormuz First” proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz indicates the possibility of de-escalation. Hold diplomatic meetings with Iran by April 30 1% Yes, down from 22% a week ago.

Market reaction

Odds for Diplomatic meeting with Iran I collapsed to 1% Yes, down from 22% a week ago. The daily trading volume is $27,673 in nominal terms but only $613 in actual USDC. It would only take $972 to change the odds by 5 percentage points, which means that one large order could move this market.

Why does it matter?

the Market for permanent peace agreements He is similarly skeptical, with the odds of a decision on April 30 being 1.1% yes. The term “structure” tells a clearer story: the May 31 contract is trading at 29.5% “yes” and the June 30 contract is trading at 43.5% “yes,” suggesting that traders are anticipating any real diplomatic movement after April. The largest single move in the peace agreement market was a 6-point rise at 11:14 AM, showing sensitivity to the news but no sustained conviction.

The United States has conditioned any easing of nuclear restrictions, which makes Hormuz’s proposal more symbolic than substantive. Still, in 1 centbuy yes at a diplomatic meeting pays $1 if it is resolved, a 100x He comes back. This bet requires belief in the possibility of a last-minute breakthrough against current geopolitical signals.

What are you watching?

Any announcement of new talks or a change in Trump’s rhetoric toward Iran could change the odds sharply. Islamabad and Doha are two potential places for mediation. Shifts in the travel schedules of American envoys will be the first indication of the upcoming talks.

Access to the API

Get predictive market information as a structured API feed. Early access waiting list.