An Iranian MP warns of a possible war and urges the public to prepare

An Iranian member of parliament has warned of a possible war and urged the public to prepare without causing panic. This statement raised the possibility of Polymarket declaring US war on Iran 8.5% Yes, up from 7% a week ago.

Market reaction

the The United States declares war on Iran by December 31 The market rose 1.5 points in a week. With 251 days until resolution, traders estimate an increased likelihood of military involvement. the April 30 The contract remains steady at 0.1% yes, meaning no immediate announcement is expected.

the The fall of the Iranian regime by June 30 The market rose to 8.5% Yes, up from 6% a week ago. Traders see internal instability as a contributing factor to regime change, although the move is modest. The Iranian regime has historically survived periods of high pressure, but tensions within the regime could change that.

the A permanent peace agreement between the United States and Iran by April 30 The market collapsed 2.5% Yes, down from 61% a week ago. With only a few days remaining until the deadline, expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough have all but faded.

Regarding trading volume: The US Declaration of War market saw $352 in USDC traded per day, and it takes $2,981 to move the odds by 5 pips, making it relatively strong. The market for peace agreements, despite its high nominal size, is subject to high volatility due to low probabilities and a looming deadline.

Why does it matter?

This development indicates the fragility of the current ceasefire and the possibility of renewed conflict. in 9 centsYES’s stake in the US Declaration of War pays $1 if it is resolved, a potential return of 11x. Traders betting on war must believe that tensions will escalate significantly over the coming months.

What are you watching?

Statements by President Trump or Secretary Hegseth, and any moves in Congress toward declaring war, will be the main driver for these markets.

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