The lead story over the weekend from The Washington Post is headlined: “Pentagon prepares for weeks of ground operations in Iran.”
The title basically tells the whole story and refers to what the market has been buzzing about since the Japan-based USS Tripoli deployed to the Middle East on March 13. That ship has now arrived and other units have also arrived or are said to be on their way.
There are no plans for a large-scale ground invasion, and it would be clear if one happened that it would require hundreds of thousands of troops. This deployment may include thousands of forces, including special forces with support from ground forces. There are no indications of possible targets, although there is much speculation.
The key detail is that it will take “weeks,” which already pushes the war beyond the 4-5 weeks timeline first set by Trump.
One person cited in the report said the goals under consideration could take “weeks, not months” to complete, while another put the potential timeline at “a few months.”
This latest timeline is terrible for the global economy, as the lack of oil flow will become a problem very quickly.
As for the Strait of Hormuz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered an equally chilling message, although it took some reading between the lines. This came after he spoke with G7 ministers:
“One of the immediate challenges we will face is Iran, when they decide they want to create a toll system in the Strait of Hormuz,” Rubio said.
“This is not only illegal, it is unacceptable. It is a danger to the world, and it is important that the world have a plan to confront it. The United States is prepared to be part of that plan. We do not have to lead this plan, but we are happy to be part of it.”
The implicit message is that the United States has no plan to open the Strait, and this is not one of its goals in the war. It also implies that the Strait will not be opened when the United States achieves its goals, whatever they may be.
The fear is that the end of this war will be the United States declaring, “We broke it, you have to fix it.” This is a problematic approach that could ultimately leave Iran with enormous influence, along with a major problem for Europe, Asia, and Africa.
Given the extended timeline, I expect to see strong upward pressure on oil prices, barring any type of diplomatic breakthrough.
WTI, daily
