The United Nations warns that the US-Israeli war on Iran may push 30 million people into poverty

UN official Alexander De Croo warned that the unrest caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran could push 30 million people into poverty. Iranian regime market declines by June 30 8.5% Yes, up from 6% a week ago.

Market reaction

The impact of the conflict on the fuel and fertilizer sectors increases pressure on the Iranian regime. the June 30 market Oil prices rose as economic pressures raised questions about the stability of the regime. the April 30 market stays at 0.8% Yes, he shows almost no faith in regime change in the near term.

Why does it matter?

the May 31 market sitting in 4.4% Yes. The spread across these three markets suggests that traders are anticipating a prolonged crisis, with most concerns centered around June. The order book is thin: $26,000 is enough to move the odds by 5 pips, meaning one big trade can change prices quickly.

The crude oil price market had not recorded any activity yet at the end of June. But major disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a large share of global oil transit, could push oil prices sharply higher. A prolonged conflict near the strait would quickly change expectations.

What are you watching?

Economic turmoil could exacerbate internal opposition in Iran and threaten regime stability. in 8.5 cents The YES stake pays $1 if the system goes down by June 30, which is 11.7x. The question is whether economic pressures are reaching a breaking point for the regime.

Watch for reports of mass protests or infighting in the IRGC, which may indicate growing instability. Announcements of further unrest in the Strait of Hormuz or shifts in regional alliances could also move these markets.

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