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Markets opened the year with minor but significant shifts. Bitcoin outperformed both stocks and gold, high-beta crypto narratives rebounded, and derivatives positioning indicated a cautious rebuilding of risk rather than excess. In today’s note, we break down the index’s performance, what ETH derivatives are signaling below the surface, and the rising case for the stock showing as a hash-based product approaching an inflection point.
Indicators
Bitcoin quietly stole the spotlight this week, benefiting from a rare but timely negative correlation to both stocks and gold. Traditional markets fell, with the Nasdaq 100 (-1.7%) and S&P 500 (-1.1%) down while gold sold off sharply (-3%), and Bitcoin rose (+3.7%). It was a steady, low-drama move that stood out precisely because of how long it had been since cryptocurrencies outperformed both risky and defensive assets in the same window. The week looked less like a speculative exuberance and more like BTC reminding the market of its role as a portfolio diversifier, a dynamic largely absent during most of last year when correlations repeatedly moved back toward one. Whether this disconnect continues will likely depend on the overall follow-through, but for now, BTC’s ability to outperform both stocks and gold represents a notable shift in the bar’s behavior that’s worth watching.
Last week’s winners were concentrated almost entirely in the higher-beta, narrative-driven corners of cryptocurrencies, signaling a shift toward speculation. Launchpad Tokens (+27.8%) advanced by a wide margin, benefiting from renewed retail participation and renewed short-term token launches as traders chased speed on fundamentals. Modular (+21.0%) and AI (+19.4%) followed closely behind, while DePIN (+18.9%) and the Solana ecosystem (+16.1%) also stood out.
Within our Launchpad index, the lead has once again returned to MetaDAO, which has extended its relative outperformance and consolidated its position as the sector leader. META’s sharp gains this week reflect renewed interest in token issuance infrastructure, as traders gravitate toward platforms that benefit most from new launches and speed-driven inflows.
What equally stood out was the breadth: almost every component of the index finished higher during the week, underscoring how synchronized the movement across the complex was. The only exception was Launchcoin, which lagged while the rest of the group participated in the uptrend. This kind of near-universal engagement is usually a sign of sector-level positioning rather than feature news. Looking ahead, the setup remains compelling, as regulatory frameworks are expected to take shape in 2026 and compliant launch infrastructure is likely to move from a speculative niche to a structural pillar of the crypto stack, making Launchpads an area that investors will increasingly be forced to pay attention to rather than trade opportunistically.
Market update
The ETH derivatives markets in December 2025 are defined by a clear difference between participation and positioning. Perpetual futures volumes continued to slow, with total ETH trading volume down ~31% month-on-month, continuing the November decline and reflecting fading speculative intensity amid consolidation and compressed volatility. Activity has declined broadly in key places, indicating a reduced appetite for short-term directional trading, especially during low holiday liquidity.
Despite this decline in trading volume, open interest rebounded sharply. Average open interest on Ethereum rose approximately 63% during the month, reflecting the November contraction and rising steadily as price action stabilized. The combination of lower volumes and higher external investment suggests that exposure has been quietly and deliberately rebuilt, suggesting a longer horizon or relative value position rather than aggressively chasing leverage.
This process of rebuilding positions was reinforced by the continued decline in liquidation activity. ETH liquidations remained subdued throughout December, with weekly liquidation volume down 56% from November and well below the maximum forced deleveraging in October. Both sides of the market remained relatively contained as prices consolidated, with short liquidations still modestly outpacing long positions but at much lower absolute levels. The absence of large liquidation pools coupled with higher open interest underscores a healthier leverage position, as positions are added gradually and risks are more tightly managed.
Taken together, lower volumes, higher open interest and lower liquidations characterize December as a period of risk reduction and position readjustment, rather than a return to speculative excess.
The bull case for pierce stocks
Perpetual shares are often framed as a crypto-native’s attempt to bring traditional markets on-chain. In fact, their real competition is not options, but leveraged ETFs, a product category that already has widespread retail adoption. The appeal is simple. Retail investors increasingly want leverage in a clean, intuitive wrapper.
JP Morgan Estimates Retail equity flows in 2025 will be more than 50% higher than in 2024 and higher than the peak of stocks in 2021. Leveraged ETFs have captured much of this appetite, with assets under management. increase From $41.6 billion in 2020 to $250 billion in late 2025, and a monthly trading volume exceeding $800 billion.
Source: Bloomberg
But leveraged ETFs are flawed: They rely on derivatives to reset exposure daily, dragging down volatility. Even when the underlying index goes nowhere, leveraged ETFs can lose value over time. These products are designed for short-term trading but are widely misunderstood and held for longer than intended.
Stock experts fix this. They provide continuous theoretical exposure without daily resets, meaning that leverage does not decay mechanically. Volatility does not compound against the trader in the same way. For anyone seeking leveraged directional exposure, equity risk is simply a cleaner tool.
Early traction supports this view. Since mid-October, Hyperliquid’s equity volume has reached approximately $12.9 billion, with daily volumes typically ranging between $200 million and $300 million. Hyperliquid currently dominates the market share, followed by Lighter.
Accessibility is important here. It is no coincidence that the volume of stock breakouts appears in the same places that dominate crypto networks.
Source: HyperZap
But there are frictions. When stock markets are closed, market makers cannot hedge, liquidity is diminished, and financing rates may rise. Platforms manage this differently through restricted trading hours or internal oracle adjustments. These issues explain why adoption has grown steadily rather than explosively.
Long-term winners will not be determined by place design but by distribution. Just as cryptocurrency perpetrators are dominated by centralized exchanges, stock perpetrators will likely expand through platforms with massive retail reach. Robinhood and Coinbase are in a better position.
Source: ClusterBoth have already been taken steps towards tokenized shares, and a compatible version of equity breaches could emerge as early as 2026. The opportunity is great; Leveraged ETFs currently trade between $800 billion and $900 billion per month. Getting 5% of those flows would increase trading volumes by He appreciates 17% for Robinhood And almost 70% for Coinbase. Ultimately, stock practices are not a cryptocurrency experience. They are retail products waiting for the right distribution channel.
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