Basic overview
The Nasdaq rose to a new all-time high on optimism about the deal between the United States and Iran. The US-Iran war has pushed the market lower on negative growth expectations, and with those expectations now repricing on the positive side, the stock market has room to run. The rules of the game are very similar to April 2025.
The second round of negotiations was expected to start today, but we never had an official date. It is expected to take place before the ceasefire deadline of April 22.
Meanwhile, we received reports that US and Iranian negotiators made progress in the talks on Tuesday and are close to reaching a framework agreement to end the war. A US official also stated that if a framework agreement is reached, the ceasefire will need to be extended to negotiate the details of a comprehensive agreement.
Everything now depends on the talks between the United States and Iran. If negotiations break down again, we could see a sell-off, but as long as the ceasefire holds, the downside should remain limited. On the other hand, the peace deal may give the Nasdaq another boost to push to new highs although a “sell the truth” type reaction remains a risk given the extreme positions.
Nasdaq Technical Analysis – Daily Time Frame
Nasdaq – daily
On the daily chart, we can see the Nasdaq rising to a new record high after an incredible rise since the beginning of April. We can expect sellers to intervene if the price falls back below the 26,400 level to be able to fall to the 25,500 level. On the other hand, buyers will likely increase their bullish bets here to continue the push towards new highs, although a pullback will provide a better risk to reward setup.
Nasdaq Technical Analysis – 4-Hour Time Frame
Nasdaq – 4 hours
On the 4-hour chart, we have two trend lines that can act as support for buyers on the dip. In fact, if we get a pullback from the all-time highs, we can expect buyers to rely on the first trend line with a specific risk below it to continue pushing towards new highs. On the other hand, sellers will look for a break down to extend the pullback to the next trend line where we should once again find buyers on the dip.
Nasdaq Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Time Frame
Nasdaq – 1 hour
On the 1-hour chart, we have another minor trend line identifying bullish momentum on this time frame. Buyers will likely continue to rely on it with risks identified below it to continue pushing towards new highs, while sellers will look for a breakout to extend the pullback to the next trend line. Red lines define Average daily range For today.
Upcoming stimuli
today We get the latest US unemployment claims numbers, but the focus remains on the US-Iranian headlines.
