Bitcoin (BTC) has shown remarkable resilience amid the war between the US and Iran, rising more than 12% since February 28. As uncertainty grips global markets, one question still dominates investor sentiment: has Bitcoin really hit its bottom, or is more downside still on the horizon?
In an interview with BeInCrypto, Benjamin Quinn, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and former NASA researcher, spoke about where the market might go next.
When will Bitcoin hit the bottom?
Bitcoin’s cycle timing has remained remarkably consistent, Cowen explained. He pointed out that by analogy Two previous sessionsBitcoin topped within one week of those previous cycles peaking.
Based on this pattern, Cowen expects the bottom to be reached approximately one year after the top.
“The base case should simply be that it bottoms when the other two cycles bottom, about a year after the most likely scenario of October of 2026,” Cowen told BeInCrypto.
He acknowledged the scenario in which Bitcoin could bottom as early as May. But for that to happen, there would have to be a massive capitulation event much smaller than what historic midterm years typically produce.
As long as Bitcoin’s year-to-date returns remain within the previous standard deviation range Mid-semester yearsQuinn sees no reason to shift away from the October thesis.
“And if you look at Bitcoin’s year-to-date return on investment in 2026 and compare it to the average of the previous average years, you get a standard deviation on that average. As long as we’re inside that range, it’s hard to assume that we’ll break out of that range, especially early in the midterm.”
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The look goes with Opinions of other market analysts. Joao Widson, CEO of Alphractal, noted that Bitcoin’s cycle peak occurred 534 days after the halving in April 2024, the shortest cycle peak compared to the previous period.
Based on this deteriorating pattern across cycles, his analysis suggests that the market bottom may appear approximately 912 to 922 days after the halving, suggesting a time frame of late September or early October 2026.
Estimates from CryptoQuant This view is widely supportedwith models pointing to a possible bottom between June and December 2026, and September to November as the most likely window.
Why this cycle was topped with apathy, not euphoria
One of Cowen’s key observations is that although Bitcoin’s peak in the current cycle is consistent with previous timelines, it emerged under very different circumstances.
He noted that in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin peaked amid widespread euphoria in the retail sector. This in turn, Rotation effects in altcoins After topping.
This time, social interest in cryptocurrencies has been trending downward since 2021. Bitcoin topped the apathy, and as a result, the usual rotation of altcoins did not materialize.
“This is a cycle where Bitcoin topped apathy rather than euphoria, and the only other time it topped apathy was actually in 2019. When you top apathy, you don’t get the same rotation.”
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Overall, Quinn maintained his view that the four-year cycle remains intact. Bitcoin is currently trading at $73,831, more than 40% below its all-time high in October 2025 near $126,000. If Quinn’s analysis is correct, it goes further The downside may still be ahead Before the cycle finds its ground.
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