Previous bear markets have left scars that are difficult to ignore. The 2017 crash wiped out more than 80% of Bitcoin value. The 2021 crash took nearly 77%. So, when a new wave of analysts began calling for a price cut to $50,000, the warnings carried weight – at least on paper.
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A different kind of course
The $50,000 level is seen as the last big buying opportunity before any real recovery takes hold, said Nick Rock, director of LVRG Research. He said a drop to this price would represent a “healthy reset of the cycle” given pressure from broader economic forces and weak capital movement into cryptocurrencies.
But Rack also raised a point that separates this downturn from previous crises: Bitcoin is already down nearly 40% from its record high, and this time, large institutions are participating in ways they weren’t before.
This changes the math. Previous crashes were mostly driven by retail traders – ordinary people buying and selling out of panic. Institutional funds behave differently, and continued buying pressure from this side of the market may create price floors that did not exist in previous cycles.
“There is a possibility that this cycle will not reach the ideal 60% decline,” Rock said, pointing to what he called a highly regulated market environment.
Bitcoin: The Big Flow…
I don’t think we’ve got it yet
I don’t think $60k was the bottom
You can pray for her, of course, but it won’t helpThe trend is still down
The percentage of bounces is very small if you zoom out
I will reconsider this position if upward strength returns
It’s just…— Ivan On Tech 🍳📈💰 Head Trader @ Bullmania (@IvanOnTech) April 13, 2026
Trader and author Ivan Liljeqvist posted to X that Bitcoin had not yet tested what he called it “The big flow.” He said that he does not believe that $60,000 represents the bottom, and that the general trend continues to point to a decline.
He said the small spikes seen along the way seem minor compared to the bigger price picture. Analyst Merlin Enkelar echoed this sentiment, noting that Bitcoin is entering a second bearish phase that could push prices lower. $50,000 Before any wider distribution of gains takes place.
Three stages. Bitcoin is about to enter the second phase.
Collection: done.
Manipulation: Loading.
Distribution: $150,000. On hold.$70,000 is the decision.
Hold it: The manipulation is short.
Her loss: $50,000 first.They’ve run this playbook once already.
I’ve seen it happen. pic.twitter.com/yJMAeA6Tfh– Merlijn Trader (@MerlijnTrader) April 13, 2026
Geopolitical tensions lead to volatility
Cryptocurrency prices do not move in a vacuum. A temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran briefly sent Bitcoin above $75,000 — the kind of jump that happens when fear disappears, if only for a moment.
US President Donald Trump announced a two-week cessation of hostilities, and markets responded quickly. But the relief did not last.
Peace talks collapsed over the weekend, and by Monday, Bitcoin had fallen below $71,000 after Trump ordered a ceasefire. Naval blockade From the Strait of Hormuz. Rising consumer prices, reported in Friday’s CPI data, added additional weight.
Bitcoin’s all-time high is at $126,198, which is set in October 2025. Current prices About $72,500 to $74,600, which puts the drawdown at roughly 40% to 44% — which is deep, but still far short of the 60% collapse that some models suggest a full-blown bear market would require.
BTC still looks very bearish
The weekly short imbalances have been filled and we can only reach an imbalance of $1M, which is roughly $80K
Right after that, I’m waiting for the final huge dump of one of my goals:
$59,000 or $50,000
Either way, the final dump is coming
Notifications are on, I’ll call below exactly pic.twitter.com/twHr5VhxRr
— Symbiote (@cryptosymbiiote) April 13, 2026
Analysts are divided on what comes next
One analyst posting under the name “symbiote” described the chart as “very bearish” on longer time frames, saying that an eventual big drop to $59,000 or $50,000 is still to come. Others are less certain that the ground has not already been set.
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What makes this cycle more difficult to read is the combination of forces pulling in both directions. Institutional investment and ETF flows Provide constant demand. Global conflict, inflation data and uncertain monetary policy reduce this. Neither side has clearly reached the proverbial goal.
Bitcoin reached a low of around $66,000 in early April before recovering. Whether this decline will remain constant — or whether the market will decline again before finding a real footing — remains an open question that even the most observant voices in the cryptocurrency space cannot agree on.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
