Late yesterday, negotiations between the US and Iran appeared to be heading towards disaster after Vice President JD Vance left Pakistan without an agreement, but all hope is not lost yet if you read between the lines of the latest statements.
The latest was from Trump, who said that the United States would remove mines in the Strait of Hormuz and prevent Iran from shipping through it, just as Iran has done with the rest of the world.
books:
So, the meeting went well, most points were agreed upon, but the one point that really mattered, the nuclear point, was not. The US Navy, the best in the world, will immediately begin the process of blockading any and all ships attempting to enter or exit the Strait of Hormuz. At some point, we will get to “let everyone in, let everyone out,” but Iran didn’t let that happen by simply saying, “There might be a mine somewhere,” that no one but Iran knows about. This is global blackmail, and leaders of countries, especially the United States of America, will never be blackmailed. I also instructed our naval forces to search for and intercept every ship in international waters that caused losses to Iran. Anyone who pays illegal fees will not have safe passage on the high seas. We will also begin destroying the mines the Iranians planted in the strait. Any Iranian who shoots at us, or at peaceful ships, will fly to hell! Iran knows, better than anyone, how to end this situation that has already destroyed its country. Their navy, their air force are gone, their anti-aircraft planes and radars are useless, Khomeini and most of their “leaders” are dead, all because of their nuclear ambition. The siege will begin soon. Other countries will participate in this blockade. Iran will not be allowed to profit from this illegal act of extortion. They want money, and most importantly, they want nuclear power. In addition, at the right moment, we are fully “ready and equipped,” and our army will finish off what little Iran has left! President Donald J. Trump
Iran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and it has knowingly failed to do so. This has caused anxiety, turmoil and pain for many people and countries around the world. They say they placed mines in the water, even though all their navies, and most of their “mine trains,” have been completely blown up. Maybe they did, but what shipowner would want to take a chance? There is great shame and lasting damage to the reputation of Iran and its remaining “leaders,” but we have overcome all that. And as they promised, they better start the process of making this international waterway open and fast! Every law in the book is violated by them. I heard all the information from Vice President J.D. Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner about the meeting that took place in Islamabad through the very kind and competent leadership of Field Marshal Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan. They are very extraordinary men, and they constantly thank me for saving the lives of 30 to 50 million people in a terrible war with India. I always appreciate hearing that – the amount of humanity being talked about is incomprehensible.
Trump then added shortly thereafter:
The meeting with Iran began early in the morning and continued throughout the night – nearly 20 hours. I could go into great detail, and talk about much of what has been achieved, but only one thing matters – Iran is not ready to give up its nuclear ambitions! in many ways, The points that were agreed upon are better than continuing our military operations until their endBut all these points do not matter compared to allowing nuclear energy to be in the hands of these fickle, difficult and unpredictable people. Over all this time, my three representatives have, unsurprisingly, become very friendly and respectful of Iran’s representatives, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Ali Bagheri, but that does not matter because they have been very hardline on the most important issue, and as I have always said, from the beginning, and for many years, Iran will never have a nuclear weapon!
I would like to highlight the bold part but also point out that J.D. Vance left, but Witkoff and Kushner are said to have remained in Pakistan.
Regarding the Iranian side, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Qalibaf (who negotiated with the Iranian team) wrote:
Ultimately, the opposition side failed to gain the confidence of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiations. America has understood our logic and principles, and now it is time for it to decide whether it is able to gain our trust or not?
This is an interesting framing. Initially, he wrote about “this round of negotiations,” suggesting that there might be another round. Most importantly, he said, this negotiation is about trust. The implicit meaning here is that Iran is required to accept part of the promise to end the war on trust, but this promise must be earned. how?
So far, the best sign is that the bombs are not flying, indicating that the two-week ceasefire is still in place and that some form of talks will continue. I would argue that this is very Fragile This is a bad outcome but not exactly a worst-case scenario, and Trump is not threatening to blow up Iran’s energy infrastructure.
However, the oil is not flowing and the optimism of last week appears to be misplaced. Presumably, even the flow of oil through the strait via Iran has now stopped as well. This will lead to a major reversal in last week’s oil price decline and I expect May WTI to open in the $10 higher range.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil for May
