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The events unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz are not just a geopolitical story. According to analyst Mikel, this may be the moment when the world learns that it does not need the dollar to settle trade.
“What is happening in the Strait is teaching all these other countries how to deal with something other than petrodollars,” Mikel said in a statement. Final discussion. “If that starts to happen, we’ll see more XRP, Ethereum, and a handful of other tokens being used in some of these global settlements.”
Escape from the currency, not just the dollar
The framework underpinning Meckel’s argument is based on Ray Dalio’s long cycle theory, specifically the final stage of a reserve currency collapse in which the flight is not from one currency to another but from the currency itself.
For many years, this final stage was assumed to involve the Chinese yuan entering the role of the dollar. Mickle argues that the narrative has changed. Even Dalio, historically a gold advocate, appears to have turned toward something broader. The question is no longer which country’s currency is dominant. Rather, it is whether any country’s currency dominates at all.
“I think Ray Dalio has changed his thesis because that final stage is now a flight of the coin itself,” Mickle said. “Digital assets create an exit from global centralized fiat currency to decentralized, neutral sources of liquidity.”
Why is XRP relevant to the moment?
Mickle was specific about what qualities are important when countries look for alternative settlement bars. Deep liquidity pools. Capacity for international settlement. Ability to move value quickly. Neutrality, meaning that there is no single government controlling it.
“There are only a few currencies that fall into this category and XRP is one of them,” he said. “This is exactly where an asset like XRP can be strategically positioned on a global level.”
Gold is used to fill this neutral role as a store of value, he said. But physical gold cannot settle the 130 ships a day moving through the strait in real time. Digital assets can.
The dominoes are just starting to fall
Mikel’s timeline is clearly long-term. In his view, de-dollarization and de-globalization are trends that span many decades, and the technology needed to enable them has only been introduced now at a time when these trends are accelerating.
“I think we are at the beginning of the technology being introduced to allow this to happen,” he said. “These are the dominoes that are just starting to fall.”
With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran demanding tariffs on cryptocurrencies, and the collapse of direct talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad, the scenario Mikel describes is no longer theoretical. Stress testing is done in real time.
