A hidden signal could reveal tomorrow’s biggest winners before Wall Street catches up…
Most investors focus on earnings, headlines, and price charts.
But what if the older – and more valuable – signals appear elsewhere?
On Friday digest In Takeover, Stansbury Research Analyst Josh Bailin explains why one of the strongest indicators in the market today is not found in financial data, but in people—specifically, where the smartest engineers, researchers, and executives choose to go (as well as where they will leave).
Josh believes that talent moves first and then capital follows. If you know how to track these shifts, you can often spot major opportunities before they show up in the numbers.
Below, he explains how this works, and how everyday investors can take advantage of these “hidden” signals using simple, generic tools.
Josh also reviews his entire system – including the current opportunity weakening – in his system Market Shakes 2026 Presentation. You can watch it here.
If you’re looking for an edge beyond the usual indicators, this is a perspective worth your time.
I’ll let Josh take it from here.
I wish you a good evening,
Jeff Remsburg
A few years ago, I started to notice something strange that most investors would overlook.
Engineers I had known for years — people who had spent their careers at Qualcomm, General Atomics, and other traditional defense contractors — were quietly disappearing from their jobs.
These engineers have not retired. They were moving to artificial intelligence.
For companies like Anduril, Shield AI, and Ora.
The people who left were among the best in their fields – engineers that other engineers wanted to work with.
I was unable to access their offer letters. I couldn’t see their stock options. But I could see the movement.
Within months, the announcements came: massive financing rounds, major defense contracts, and valuations that made national news.
DC followed the talent.
If you know how to spot this shift early, you can position your position before the market turns active…
Talent moves first
I call these early signals “observable surfaces” — the places where real behavior reveals what’s to come before Wall Street designs it.
Consumer behavior is a big one. and Where the best people choose to work It is an observable surface hiding in plain sight.
Employees at technology companies — especially senior engineers and executives — see reality long before it shows up in SEC filings:
- They know if the technology actually works.
- They know if leadership has a real plan.
- They know when a company culture starts to rot.
Nondisclosure agreements keep them quiet. But they can leave. And when they do, they tell you everything.
What I’ve seen happen locally in San Diego has happened on a large scale in the AI field.
Notably, this happened with the creator of ChatGPT OpenAI…and almost no one noticed at the time.
Back in December 2020, Dario Amodei He was Vice President of Research at OpenAI. He helped build GPT-2 and GPT-3 – the models that made OpenAI famous. his sister, Daniela Amodeiran safety and policy.
Then they left. They were not left alone.
A group of senior researchers – the same people who built ChatGPT – walked out the door. Together they founded a new startup company.
They shot him Anthropic.
At the time, most people didn’t notice. OpenAI was raising billions. ChatGPT was about to change everything. Why care about a handful of quiet departures?
Those departing He was The signal.
The people closest to the technology have already seen where things are going.
Today, Anthropic has emerged as one of OpenAI’s most serious competitors, attracting billions of dollars in funding and partnerships with major technology players.
And according to SignalFire’s State of Tech Talent 2025 report, OpenAI employees are now more likely to leave for Anthropic than the other way around.
The best people vote through their careers. Now, they are voting decisively.
In AI, capital follows the most important people. You don’t pay “war prices” for talent unless you believe you’re fighting for the future.
In May 2024, Ilya Sutskever He left OpenAI to launch a new project called Super-safe intelligence.
By April 2025, it was reportedly worth $32 billion.
No product. No revenue. Only Sutskever and a small group of researchers worked at the border.
That’s the value of talent when you actually see the future.
The same pattern emerged at a junior defense contractor On the sensor. When this company set out to challenge legacy players, it recruited them Tom Keane – who spent 20 years in Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Building Office 365 and Azure – together with leaders from Palantir Technologies Inc. (Belter), SpaceXand Splunk.
The result? Anduril has grown from 700 employees to over 4,000 employees. Its value has risen from $1 billion to more than $30 billion…and it is now winning contracts previously reserved for companies that have dominated the industry for decades.
The pattern is always the same:
Talent moves first. DC tracking.
Your edge
Here’s an uncomfortable truth: The best employees always have choices.
When a once-thriving company changes course, the most talented people see it first. Because they are the most in demand, they are the first to find better opportunities.
By the time the exodus becomes apparent to outsiders, the best talent is long gone.
You don’t need insider access to track talent movement. Signs are general, if you know where to look:
- LinkedIn: This job communication app shows job changes in real time. If you notice five engineers from the same team moving to the same startup… it’s not a coincidence.
- Glass door: The workplace reviews on this site reveal sentiment before it becomes news. Increased complaints about driving or sudden silence from a previously active company are early warnings.
- Employment patterns: These trends speak volumes. Freezes means trouble. Unexpected increases mean urgency.
- Quiet executive departure: This is often more important. CEO departures make headlines… but a CPO walking out the back door is often a bigger signal that most people miss.
Organizations cannot act on this information. They will not allow green light trading based on Glassdoor reviews. You can’t include “top five engineers quit” in a financial model.
But as an individual investor, you don’t have those restrictions.
You can get verified on LinkedIn in minutes. You can notice when people who are building the future begin to gather in one place.
the Observable surfaces Show you what’s coming, before it shows in the numbers.
When engineers leave, they know something.
The only question is whether you act before everyone sees it.
In my new brand Market Shakes 2026 PresentationI show how I track these signals – along with other forms of “shadow data” – to identify companies that are gaining real momentum before they show up in the numbers.
I also go through how this system works step-by-step… and share the current opportunity that is now declining. It’s one of the clearest signals I see today.
You can Watch the full show here And see how to apply it yourself.
good investment,
Josh Palin
Senior Analyst, Stansbury Research
