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We start with a risk-off ticker across technology, cryptocurrencies, and miners, then focus on Robinhood’s market prediction roadmap.
Indicators
Markets closed on a clear risk-off tone yesterday. Gold was the only bright spot, finishing 0.8% higher, while the S&P 500 finished flat and the Nasdaq and BTC fell -1.38% and -1.89%, respectively.
Fundamental drivers remain unchanged, with continued rotation out of AI trading impacting technology-heavy indices. This time, sentiment was shaken by reports that a major investor in Oracle had pulled out of a data center project. Although Oracle later disputed this claim, the headline was enough to push already cautious investors onto the defensive.
This weakness extended to cryptocurrencies, with every sector ending in the red. One surprising drag was the meme index, which fell just -1.2% despite being one of the most sentiment-sensitive sectors. The index found support from M (MemeCore), which was the only component to close in the green and rose 1.96% on the day.
The hardest hit sectors were cryptocurrency mining and artificial intelligence companies, both of which fell by approximately -9%. Miners continue to feel pressure from fears of a decline in AI trading, with the IREN Index now down -31% over the past month. In the AI index, TAO was the weakest performer, down -9% despite recently halving.
Some hopium for readers: Despite negative market sentiment, BTC ETFs turned positive again and generated $346.1 million in inflows yesterday. Let’s hope this trend continues for at least a few days in a row to end the year on a slightly positive note.
Market update
It seems like every two weeks brings a major development in the prediction markets. This week, it was Robinhood that unveiled new prediction market features at its keynote event. The increased focus makes sense. Prediction markets have become Robin Hood markets Fastest growing product in terms of revenueWith 11 billion contracts traded by more than 1 million users.
Sport remains the clear driver. They now represent approx 35% Of storage units in Polymarket and close to 90% On the same page. If we evaluate the year-over-year esports volume from the past four weeks across both platforms, that comes out to roughly $74.5 billion. For context, FanDuel’s take on him $50.7 billion Bet on 2024 and DraftKings around $49.4 billion. Prediction markets are no longer a niche product – they compete directly with existing Web2 companies.
The final missing piece was rewards. Parlays form approx 30% Of sports betting sizes and approx 60% of industry revenues. They combine multiple bets into one bet, offering much higher payouts but with much lower odds of winning. This is exactly why it is so profitable for platforms.
Robinhood is now moving aggressively into this area. He – she Announce Users will soon be able to trade sets of scores, totals and spreads for individual NFL games. Looking forward to early 2026, users will be able to create custom sets of up to 10 NFL game scores. Robinhood will too Allows Trading on individual player performance. This is a meaningful leap from the basic P/L markets currently available and opens the door to greater speculation and trading volume. Robinhood Plans To expand these features beyond football and eventually beyond sports altogether.
The remaining question is how does Robinhood choose to build? Will these products be developed in partnership with Calci or will they be provided entirely in-house? This question became even more important after the Robinhood question recently It plans to build its own forecasting market infrastructure through a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group. Coinbase also entered the picture this week advertisement Partnered with Kalshi to bring prediction markets to its users. It is clear that an arms race is underway.
Sports markets have found a clear product-market fit this year. With widespread distribution and increasingly sophisticated products, Robinhood’s latest moves could give it a meaningful advantage. If there was a market today for a prediction market leader by volume in 2026, my bet would be on Robinhood.
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